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3 Fearless Predictions For 2014

2014 is as fresh as newly fallen snow, filled with seemingly endless possibilities.

It’s also the time of year where people like me offer our predictions of what the solar industry will look like 12 months from now (I like to imagine my critics clipping and saving this column so they can come back to me in December and tell me what a fool I was).

It’s a rite of passage. So here are my predictions about what 2014 will look like:

1) Consolidation will continue.

The pace of consolidation, which I’ve relentlessly written about for the past two years, picked up significantly in 2013. I expect the trend to continue. I’d even go as far to say the pace will quicken again.

As I’ve written before, this is good. All industries go through it, and it will leave us stronger on the other end. The faster it happens, the better.

2) The focus will shift from module prices to driving down balance of system (BOS) costs.

As Paula Mints of SPV Market Research has been preaching for the past two years, module prices have hit bottom. In 2013, they started to rise slightly again. That’s good news for the panel manufacturers, who have struggled in recent years to be profitable as the price of silicon dropped through the floor.

Now the focus will be on driving down everything else in the installation supply chain. We’re not quite at grid-parity nationwide yet, but we’re getting there.

And don’t sleep on permitting costs. Installers tell me this is one of the biggest reasons installation costs are still so high. There are several efforts under way to streamline them nationwide, and the more we can do to support them, the more quickly we can lower these inflated costs.

3) Get ready for the next rush to put projects in the ground

Will the solar investment tax credit (ITC) be renewed before its planned expiration date of 2016? No one knows — least of all anyone interested in installing any significant solar in the next two years.

Those who have been in the industry for more than two years remember the expiration of the 1603 Cash Program in December 2011. Developers, financiers and homeowners virtually tripped over themselves to put projects in the ground before they lost their program eligibility. Since the ITC’s future is equally unsettled, expect the same rush as the deadline for its expiration looms. I hope everyone who wants to be part of the solar revolution is prepared to run this race well.

So there they are — my fearless predictions for the 2014 solar industry. I’d like to hear yours, so contact me at fandorka@solarpowerworldonline.com. I look forward to engaging in a spirited discussion.