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The MCP process is used by analysts to project the long-term energy potential of a proposed wind project by correlating short-term observational data from the site with a long-term record from a nearby reference site.

A manufacturer of site assessment equipment added an on-demand online access feature to its Reference Wind Time-Series. This series by 3 TIER makes wind energy production estimates worldwide more accurate. The company says that performing Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) with its reference wind series reduces the level of uncertainty in annual production estimates, creating results that help project developers secure financing.

According to the company, the series offers accurate, 30+ year reference data at an exact hub height, with data for 80% of the world available for download. Wind resource analysts can download three months of data at no cost to check the correlation with onsite measurements before purchase.

“Worldwide competition for capital to build wind projects is intense,” says Kenneth Westrick, founder and CEO of 3TIER.“Today, banks and financiers demand a higher level of confidence that projects will be able to service their debt. Access to global resource data reduces long-term uncertainty helping address these concerns.”

EMD International A/S, developer of WindPRO wind farm planning and design software, conducted validation studies of the series prior to integrating the data offering into its software. The studies were performed in different regions of the world where EMD had access to reliable, long-term wind measurements from tall towers.

“We found that 3TIER’s reference time-series significantly reduce the long-term correction error compared to data from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is often the only option available due to the lack of reliable measurements,” says Per Nielsen, manager and senior wind consultant of EMD. “Using reference data lowers the uncertainty of the annual energy production calculation and provides a more bankable result.”

A significant weakness of MCP is the lack of high-quality, long-term reference data, particularly in vast regions of the world were long-term ground station observations simply don’t exist. This series offers 15-km resolution wind resource data, including hour-by-hour values for:

Wind speed and direction at a custom height

Temperature at 2 m

Air pressure at 0 m

The company’s own validation of the series includes an analysis of data from more than 450 U.S tall towers. Results showed a 25% improvement in correlations compared to the nearest NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data point, and a 10% improvement in correlations compared to the nearest 10 m observation station. Improvements were even more dramatic in areas of complex terrain. 3TIER’s hourly, 15-km resolution time-series data is available globally. By comparison, time-series data from NCAR only provide information in 6-hour increments and at a coarse resolution of 200 km.

3 TIER

www.3tier.com